TRA FISH EXPORTS GAIN UNEXPECTED ADVANTAGE FROM POLLOCK AND FUEL PRICES

Tra fish is a white meat product that competes directly with pollock, with Russia being a key global exporter. The armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with economic sanctions against Russia, may create an advantage for Vietnamese tra fish.

According to VASEP, pollock is the main competitor to tra fish. Pollock is favored because it is wild-caught and similarly priced to farmed tra fish. This species is found in the Arctic Ocean, North Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans, particularly in waters around the Arctic and temperate regions. Pollock ranks second in global marine fish catches, primarily harvested in Russia and the United States. It is a popular white fish consumed worldwide.

In 2007-2008, many countries minimized pollock fishing to maintain natural stocks, leading to a sharp decline in pollock supply. As a result, tra fish prices soared as many importers from Europe and the U.S. chose it as a substitute for pollock. After a period of reduced fishing, wild pollock stocks recovered, becoming a formidable competitor to tra fish.

Russian pollock is exported globally. Therefore, if pollock imports are restricted due to sanctions on Russia, there will be a significant supply shortage, and Vietnamese tra fish will become the top substitute. Previously, Russia aimed to match the U.S. in pollock production by 2022. However, U.S. pollock production in 2022 is expected to be lower due to reduced fishing in Alaskan waters.

At the conference to implement the 2022 development plan for the tra fish industry, organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in Cần Thơ on February 25, businesses reported that with high fuel prices, rising global seafood prices, and continued limits on marine fishing, Vietnamese freshwater-farmed tra fish will have a stronger foothold in the global market.

In 2022, the tra fish industry is expected to produce around 1.6 to 1.7 million tons of commercial tra fish, with export turnover exceeding $1.6 billion USD.

VASEP forecasts that tra fish export prices in all markets will increase by at least 5%, and tra fish exports in 2022 will rise by 20-25% compared to 2021, with major markets like the U.S. and China maintaining high prices.

Currently, raw tra fish prices have reached 30,000 VND/kg, a record level last seen in 2018. According to Mr. Lê Thanh Thuấn, Chairman of the Board of Directors of International Development Investment Corporation (IDI), the high price of raw tra fish is due to significant losses in the farming sector after two years of COVID-19 impacts, leading some farmers to quit and others to struggle with expansion. Mr. Thuấn even predicts that by April, businesses without farming areas and raw material control may not have enough fish for processing.

Meanwhile, market demand, especially in the U.S. and Latin America, for fish under 1 kg per piece is currently very high. Some contracts have reached 6 USD/kg, a historic price that the industry has never achieved before.

Author: Nguyễn Đoàn (tinnhanhchungkhoan)